Who Will Win (Almost) Every Oscar This Year

Yikes. What a Weird, Wild, and Thoroughly Exhausting Awards Season

The gold derby has entered the final lap—and I couldn’t be happier.

Due to the dual Screen Actors and Writers Guild of America strikes in the summer and fall of 2023, production on many 2024 projects halted; many even saw their release dates delayed to this year. The result has been a frankly less-than-stellar year for the movies and, for this article, a less-than-stellar awards season.

Yes, the French-produced musical crime drama about a transgender Mexican drug cartel leader, Emila Pèrez, leads the nominations with thirteen (a near record), but that does not guarantee it will win. Critically respected, Pèrez’s public reception feels the equivalent of the Trinity test site after the first atomic bomb was dropped. It’s a movie the world loves to hate for good reasons.

Even if the movie was interesting, had catchy songs, was staged well, or was, to be blunt, any good, it would still be a lightning rod of controversy. Firstly, Mexicans derided the movie for insulting their culture; secondly, the transgender community condemned the handling of the titular character as they believed in reinforced negative stereotypes of transgender people; thirdly, the director has had several of his quotes taken out of context which suggested Spanish is the language of the “poor.”

Then there are the resurfaced tweets by the film’s leading actress, Karla Sofía Gascón, which I’ll let you research on your own time.

Outside of Emila Pèrez’s unfathomable path to dominating awards season, the narrative from September through February was that there was no clear front-runner in many categories. Critics and aggregators could not agree on who would take home Best Picture: Would it be Pèrez or the flashy, technicolor musical Wicked? Would it be the cold and impressive The Brutalist that swept the Golden Globes or the twisted, modern-day Cinderella story Anora that won the Palm d’Or at Cannes? Or would it be the papal thriller Conclave, which won the BAFTA for picture and the ensemble award at the Screen Actors Guild? There were points in the last four months where each was the leading contender.

Then there were the other categories! Bradey Corbet (The Brutalist) and John M. Chu (Wicked) earned the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award for direction. At the same time, Sean Baker (Anora) emerged from the back of the pack to pick up the Directors Guild of America medallion. The lead actor category is a toss-up between the reserved Adrian Brody, who has won several precursors, and Timothee Chalamet, who played Bob Dylan in the 8-time nominated A Complete Unknown and has its devoted fans thanks to his unorthodox campaigning methods.

And while all of these movies have their fans, I, for one, am just disappointed. Moviegoers had an abundance of riches in 2023. The top-three box office earners were all non-sequels for the first time in twenty years; we saw increased output from female directors, leading to one of the highest-grossing films of all time; we reveled in an eclectic and compelling mix of auteur hits and indie favorites. It felt like a perfect encapsulation of what movies can provided the world. And this year kinda shows us the opposite.

Ideally, the Academy Awards are a chance to celebrate the movies we love and those that move us. But in a year where there was little to love and so little that moved us, what can there be to celebrate?

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Best Picture

Anora — PREDICTED WINNER
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

Best Director

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez

Sean Baker, Anora — PREDICTED WINNER

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown — PREDICTED WINNER
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Best Actress in a Leading Role

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance — PREDICTED WINNER
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain — PREDICTED WINNER
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez — PREDICTED WINNER

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

A Complete Unknown (Screenplay by James Mangold and Jay Cocks)
Conclave (Screenplay by Peter Straughan) — PREDICTED WINNER
Emilia Pérez (Screenplay by Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Léa Mysius and Nicolas Livecchi)
Nickel Boys (Screenplay by RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes)
Sing Sing (Screenplay by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield)

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Anora (Written by Sean Baker) — PREDICTED WINNER
The Brutalist (Written by Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
A Real Pain (Written by Jesse Eisenberg)
September 5 (Written by Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David)
The Substance (Written by Coralie Fargeat)

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Who do you think will win this year at the 97th Oscars? Let us know in the comments below!