Oscars 2024: Our Nomination Predictions

Awards Season Enters The Final Lap

When the 2024 Academy Awards nominations are announced tomorrow, January 23, from Los Angeles, CA, many of last year’s biggest stories in film will get a storybook ending worthy of Hollywood’s greatest achievements.

Some questions still linger: Can the Barbenheimer phenomenon ride its record-setting theatrical run to the stage of the Dolby Theater? Will first-time filmmakers get the chance to compete alongside industry giants like Martin Scorsese? Will John Williams get his 54th Oscar nomination for Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny? (Hey, it could happen!)

Regardless of who wins the gold derby this year, one thing is clear: it’s been a great year for the movies—and the Academy has no shortage of good and even great pictures to celebrate. That’s already a step above most recent ceremonies.

Here are our predictions for the above-the-line categories at the 96th Oscars:

BEST PICTURE

Once as wide open as the deserts of Los Alamos, the leading contenders for Best Picture solidified as quickly as the montage of Barbie and Ken traveling to the real world. Of course, you can expect blockbuster sensations like Oppenheimer and Barbie to compete alongside industry favorites like Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things. At the same time, we predict an unprecedented three foreign films (Past Lives, Anatomy of a Fall, and The Zone of Interest) will also appear on the list. Expect many similarities between this roster and the Producers Guild of America and Critics Choice Award nominees, which have struck a healthy balance between mainstream fare and indie darlings.

• American Fiction

• Anatomy of the Fall

• Barbie

• Killers of the Flower Moon

• Maestro

• Oppenheimer — PREDICTED WINNER

• Past Lives

• Poor Things

• The Holdovers

• Zone of Interest

BEST DIRECTOR

The Academy loves to bestow “Oopsie Oscars,” awarding a worthy filmmaker, actor, or artisan for incredibly competent work but perhaps not their best—like Al Pacino’s 1993 acting win for Scent of a Woman and Martin Scorsese’s 2007 directing win for The Departed. After the infamous snub for directing The Dark Knight, it took another decade for Christopher Nolan to receive his first Best Director nomination for Dunkirk. We’re not saying this will be an “Oopsie Oscar,” per se, but it has the same narrative: a highly respected filmmaker in total command of his craft finally gets his due. Frankly, it’s Nolan’s to win and his to lose.

• Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer — PREDICTED WINNER

• Greta Gerwig, Barbie

• Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

• Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

• Jonathan Glazer, Zone of Interest

BEST ACTOR

We’ll come out and say it: the past decade of Best Actor winners have not been great. They’ve often been uninspired, predictable, and sometimes downright confusing (we’re looking at you, Rami Malek). However, this year might be the rare one in recent memory where there’s a genuine case to be made for every leading contender for Best Actor. At the moment, it’s a two-way race between industry favorites Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers and Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer. There are many formidable contenders for the other two spots, but we think Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) and Leonard DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) will miss out.

• Bradley Cooper, Maestro

• Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

• Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction

• Colman Domingo, Rustin

• Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers — PREDICTED WINNER

BEST ACTRESS

Much like its Best Actor counterpart, this is an incredibly exciting year in a category that has been very predictable lately. It’s a two-woman race between Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). Hopefully, they keep splitting the guild awards, so there will be some mystery on Oscars night. Is there a situation where Barbie darling Margot Robbie misses a nomination? It feels unlikely, but the category is getting pretty crowded with powerhouse performances from Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall and Carey Mulligan in Maestro. Add Greta Lee’s quiet reflections in Past Lives, and there’s a full slate of deserving nominees.  

• Emma Stone, Poor Things

• Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon — PREDICTED WINNER

• Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

• Carey Mulligan, Maestro

• Margot Robbie, Barbie

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

This is one of the bigger locks: Da’Vine Joy Randolph will be taking home this award, which is rightfully deserved. A stoic performance in The Holdovers has her in the pole position, and she keeps racking up the guild awards. Danielle Brooks and Emily Blunt seem like more sure nominees in the 2-3 spots. Which Academy-honored actresses will get the last two spots? It’s a three-way race for Julianne Moore (May December), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), or Jodie Foster (Nyad). It’s been almost 30 years since Jodie Foster got a nomination, and the likely Screenplay nomination for May December leads us to think that’ll elevate Julianne Moore here too. However, we’d love to see Rachel McAdams get a nomination for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret.

• Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers — PREDICTED WINNER

• Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple

• Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

• Julianne Moore, May December

• Jodie Foster, Nyad

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

“Doesn’t seem to matter what I do, I’m always number two.”

That should be Ryan Gosling’s catchphrase for this awards season, as his delightful turn in Barbie likely won’t be K-enough to overtake Robert Downey Jr. in this race. Vying for the other three spots include Poor Things co-stars Mark Ruffalo and Willem Dafoe, who have duked it out across award ceremonies for the past few months. After a surprising snub from the Screen Actors Guild, anticipate the much-loved Ruffalo to knock out Dafoe from the race. Other industry favorites like DeNiro and Brown will sneak in at expense of one of the better young performances from the season: Dominic Sessa in The Holdovers.

• Ryan Gosling, Barbie

• Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer — PREDICTED WINNER

• Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction

• Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things

• Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

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Expect many of the predicted Best Picture nominees to appear in the original and adapted screenplay races, including much-needed love for films like Past Lives, which will sadly be overlooked in acting and directing categories. Animated fare like the acclaimed sequel Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse and Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron will also appear in the final nominees for multiple categories.

Who do you think will be nominated at this year’s Oscar ceremony? Who do you think will emerge victorious? Let us know in the comments below!